Thoughts for the Weekend - Friday, March 13, 2020 (Reprint - 2026; as originally appeared on LinkedIn)

By Enrique Perez • 03/13/2026

There was a teenager. He enjoyed bicycling. It represented a form of exercise, a way to explore, and a degree of freedom.

The faster he went, the more he felt the air rushing by his face.

He couldn’t get enough of the speed—both his speed and that of the bicycle under him—as it created an adrenaline rush. The rush wasn’t only from the speed, but knowing he could control the speed.

There were, however, occasions where his speed and the speed of the bicycle did not match.

The startling moment of flying over the bicycle’s handlebars was always sudden, quickly over, and, looking back, rather violent.

***

For those of us fortunate enough to have the resources to invest in financial markets, the experience of these recent weeks has been sudden and rather violent. In only a few weeks, a year’s worth of gains retreated.

As for looking back, we don’t yet know whether we’ll consider it being quickly over—that is a question for the future and which of the competing narratives we will tell ourselves to help us explain it to others.

At the present time, it certainly does not feel as though it has, or will be, quickly over. It is natural to feel that in the short-term. It is also natural to want to fight it or take flight. It is also natural to stand there not knowing what to do—we just don’t talk about that reaction all that often.

These are the moments in time where it is best to focus on determining 1) what you control and 2) what matters to you. Once determined, you should focus where there is overlap.

You don’t have control over financial markets. Your investments matter to you for the goals they represent in the future—an emergency fund, the downpayment on a first home, education savings, retirement, etc. At first glance, they don’t appear to overlap; again, you don’t have control over financial markets. You do, however, have control over your decisions and subsequent actions as they relate to financial markets.

As you consider your upcoming decisions and subsequent actions, some thoughts to bear in mind:

● What is your time horizon for each goal? ○ When will you need the money? ● What is your risk tolerance? ○ Think less about what you think you know about your risk tolerance ○ Instead, consider what you now know in looking back ■ In previous situations, what decisions and subsequent actions did you take and, looking back, were they appropriate for you? ● What should be your current approach? ○ “Timing the market”, as in, you could sell everything you currently own and return at the precise moment financial markets bottom ■ Do you know you can “time the market”? Or is it that you think you can “time the market”? ○ Sticking to your current process ■ Previously scheduled contributions to your investment account(s) ○ Lump-sum contribution vs. contributions over time ■ If you’ve had a set amount in cash as part of your asset allocation, or as recently inherited funds, gift(s), etc. ■ There are rational and emotional arguments involved ● While there is math in support of what appears to be rationally optimal, could you emotionally stomach your chosen approach and stick with it?

● How do you react to outcomes, specifically bad outcomes (like these last few weeks)? ○ Good decisions can have good outcomes, but they can also have bad outcomes ■ You prepared for and aced the interviews, heard it was great to work there, and took the job → It was a nightmare you walked away from within months, but mirrored your previous efforts during the new job search ○ Bad decisions can have bad outcomes, but they can also have good outcomes ■ Without preparation, you asked someone to be your mentor and completely flubbed your request → They decided to be your mentor because they had once done something similarly preventable ● Given what you’ve experienced in the economy and financial markets: ○ What probability would you assign to the economy and financial markets being better / higher or worse / lower in: ■ 6 months / One year / Three years, etc. ● What is your time horizon for each of your goals? ○ When will you need the money?

To be sure, this is not an exhaustive list and there may be other personal circumstances, and of varying degrees, for you to also consider. Hopefully this will be a start for framing the need to ask yourself questions before making decisions. If anything, these may already be steps you consider or readily apply, but can be easily forgotten with competing short-term priorities. Lest we forget, it doesn’t represent what hasn’t already been written in some form or another, or doesn’t align with what our predecessors left us to consider. It provides us an opportunity to focus less on being right or wrong, and more about being as accurate as can be expected.

***

The teenager who enjoyed bicycling—flying over those handlebars more than once with the skinned knees, elbows, and bruises to show for it—was me.

In some ways, my accidents were a blend of bad decisions (my self-perceived need for speed) and good decisions (correctly wearing a helmet, not riding alone). There were also unknowns—patches of loose gravel, the unseen bumps in the path—that were arguably plain bad luck.

You’ve likely had similar experiences. For me, it helped inform how I understood my tolerance for risk on future rides, an appreciation for knowing I hadn’t mastered what I thought I had, and embracing what I didn’t know. It led me to create simple rules and better processes for holding myself accountable in making more good decisions and fewer bad decisions.

Like many aspects of life, riding a bicycle can be simple, but it is not easy given all of the unknowns. The same has been said about investing.

Feelings of losses can be larger when compared to feelings of gains—we can remember the accident and it having occurred during a ride far more vividly than the actual entire ride itself. It can be easier to stop riding, even understandable given how shaken an accident can leave us or how much others question our choices.

But when we get back on that bicycle—as I did and we all have—let’s not solely focus on avoiding an accident, or ride in fear of another potential accident, and lose sight of actually enjoying the entire ride and those rides that follow. After all, getting back on the bicycle is how we’ll get to where we’re going.

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Enrique Perez is the Managing Principal & Chief Investment Officer at Mission Park Capital, a financial advisory and investment management firm. The firm shares a weekly article of interest via its LinkedIn page.

A tip of the hat to Annie Duke for sharing her thoughts on decision-making and outcomes, and so much more, in her book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts.

This article is intended to provide general information about Mission Park Capital. The information herein constitutes the author's own opinions and is not intended to offer investment, tax or legal advice. Investing in financial instruments involves risks including, but not limited to, the potential loss of principal, unanticipated market risk, financial or political developments, and all are subject to other various risks which may change over time. Acknowledgment of outside material does not imply any affiliation with or endorsement by them. For Additional Information, Disclosures & Disclaimers, please visit the firm's website.

This article originally appeared on LinkedIn at the following link: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/thoughts-weekend-friday-march-13-2020-enrique-perez/

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